February 25, 2025
After months of record prices on the cocoa market, the upward trend is starting to slow down. In recent days, the May contract in New York fell by 17.38%, driven by the arrival of rains in West Africa and the liquidation of investment funds. But what does this mean for the future of cocoa and chocolate?
Rains in Africa and a More Stable Production
Lack of rain in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producers, was one of the reasons behind the historic price hike. Now, the picture is changing with the gradual return of rainfall. Ghana has received above-average rains so far this year, and in Ivory Coast the 2024/25 crop is expected to be slightly above last year’s, reaching about 1.8 million tonnes.
Analysts remain cautious, however. While short-term production appears more stable, the long-term outlook is not as encouraging. Plantation erosion and structural problems in the region keep the future of African cocoa uncertain.
Ecuador and Other Producers Gain Ground
Meanwhile, other countries are taking advantage of the situation. Ecuador continues to surprise with record figures: in January 2025 it exported 54,620 metric tons of cocoa beans and semi-finished products, 44.48% more than last year. In total, from October to January, the country has exported more than 231,000 tons, marking a growth of 41.33%. If this trend continues, Ecuador could reach the 500,000 ton mark this season, consolidating itself as one of the main players in the global market.
Other countries such as Peru, Cameroon and Nigeria are also in the spotlight, as high prices have encouraged investment in these emerging markets.
Smuggling and Movements in the Industry
The soaring prices have brought with them an unexpected problem: cocoa smuggling. It is estimated that between 100,000 and 200,000 tons have left Ivory Coast illegally for neighbouring countries such as Guinea, due to the difference in prices between cocoa set by the government and the value on the international market. However, the authorities have taken measures to curb this activity.
On the other hand, the sector continues to see strategic moves. Olam, one of the largest buyers of cocoa, has closed a $1.78 billion deal to sell a majority stake in its agribusiness unit to Saudi Agricultural & Livestock Investment Co., which may bring about significant changes in the dynamics of the cocoa trade.
Chocolate, a small everyday luxury
The impact of these changes is already being felt in the chocolate industry. Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelez, has warned that "consumers will have to get used to chocolate that is 30%, 40% or even 50% more expensive than it used to be." However, he is confident that demand will continue, as chocolate remains an irresistible product for consumers.
Conclusion
Although the cocoa market is showing signs of stabilisation, the future remains uncertain. African production may improve in the short term, but faces long-term challenges. Meanwhile, Ecuador and other emerging producers are gaining prominence in global trade. What is certain is that chocolate, even if more expensive, will continue to be a pleasure that is hard to resist.
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